According to a new report from eMarketer, e-commerce sales will be lower this year than previously thought:
Digital marketing researcher eMarketer has downgraded its forecast for retail e-commerce sales in the U.S. this year, predicting contraction of 3.1 percent. Previously the company had predicted that retail e-commerce would essentially be flat this year, but poor sales figures recently released by both the U.S. Department of Commerce and comScore caused eMarketer to reel in its expectations further.
Long seen as a haven where consumers could find more attractive deals than in brick-and-mortar outlets, e-commerce has enjoyed a relative delay in the retail apocalypse that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers.
No more. The main factors driving online sales down are high unemployment and the rising cost of oil. Even if the Obama administration is successful in reducing the price of oil by limiting speculation in the commodities markets, unemployment is a much harder nut to crack, given its historic behavior as a persistent, lagging indicator following the official end of a recession.
Things are expected to get rosier in 2010, however:
…by 2010, growth should be back on track, according to the report, which forecasts a 5.5 percent increase in retail e-commerce next year. Growth should accelerate over the next two years before leveling off in 2013, said eMarketer.
via eMarketer Downgrades e-Commerce Projection.
